Here’s my refutation towards ufology in general based on futuristic philosophy. It’s not necessarily a refutation of the evidence presented by ufologists, but rather the implications of ufology if it were truly as ufologists depict.
if there is any life at all in the universe on another planet that evolved into human-intelligence say just a million years before us (which is really nothing compared to the age of the universe), i mean the human race has only had 10,000 years with written records and look what we’ve accomplished – it’s all too likely that any alien race that precedes us would have technology far beyond our wildest imaginations, and if they still happen to stay in animal form, then the galaxy should be chock full of them by now – there is no logical reason for why any surviving alien race before us would not be all over the place, there is no logical reason for why any alien race before us has not contacted us by now (and don’t give me those bullshit star trek reasons, you and I both know that aliens are smarter and more humane than the prime directive). (note: in this paragraph I am of course assuming that there isn’t any technological bottleneck that cannot be overcome through time)
right now, ufologists are assuming that aliens just happen to have an intellect, technology and motives that closely resemble our own. I mean, flying saucers with instantaneous movement, we could probably achieve that in 500 years (even though there won’t be any practical use for it by then because we would probably have something better), but even 500 years further is beyond our predictive capabilities because technology will progress too rapidly.
To assume that any saucer flying alien we encounter right now are a weird slightly advanced version of us (which is essentially what ufologists are depicting) is to assume that these aliens are within close proximity (if they’re too far away then there will have been enough time for their technology to improve enough that the 1st ship earthbound is intercepted by a newer faster 2nd ship which is also intercepted by a newer faster 3rd ship until they supercede the need for spaceships in any conventional sense, so it has to be close enough that the time taken to travel here is less than the time it takes to research better ship technology), it is to assume that not only are we in close proximity, but that there is no other older more advanced alien race for which we are within range in order for the saucer aliens to reach us first. it is also to assume that we coincidentally evolved into intelligent social animals within roughly the same timeframe, so the aliens will have to have evolved at the most a million years before we did – if they reached human level of intelligence any earlier then they will probably have advanced way beyond flying saucers and visible lights and everything else ufologists consider evidence. Sure given the size of the universe there’s probably life elsewhere, but for flying saucers to visit us greatly limits the distance from where it could originate.
For aliens to have the same motives as humans – for them to be irrational enough to be ok with appearing in front of a select minority of us but not ok with contacting everyone via telepathy or bypassing government coverups or providing meaningful evidence and helping us to alleviate our own suffering, for them to be irrational enough to not share their knowledge with us and correct our inhumanity, for them to be irrational enough to draw weird crop circles and abduct living beings, it means that they will have to have, by luck discovered interstellar spaceship technology way before they ever could develop more rational and progressive motives required for advanced social sustainability, which again limits the age of their civilisation.
To be an alien ufologist is to assume that any aliens just happen to fly space ships and have human motives and be within close proximity to us – all that, which while possible, is superastronomically unlikely, and it would be pretty darn depressing if it were true that the only aliens to visit earth are so primitive and unsophisticated.